current position：Home>The data verify the three expectations of eip-1559: the application rate is less than 25%, and the miner's income decreases by 23%
The data verify the three expectations of eip-1559: the application rate is less than 25%, and the miner's income decreases by 23%
2021-08-23 04:39:26 【PANews】
analysts | Carol
High profile Ethereum EIP-1559 The reform plan has been online for more than ten days , according to Dune Analytics Monitoring of , By 8 month 19 Japan （ Noon Beijing time 11:00 about ）,EIP-1559 Accumulated destroyed 62981 ETH, Reduced contract 1.95 Billion dollars .
according to Vitalik Buterin、Eric Conner and Rick Dudley And other core developers ,EIP-1559 The proposal will solve the mismatch between Ethereum transaction cost fluctuation and transaction social cost , As well as reducing unnecessary delays in user transactions and providing new ideas for long-term response to hidden dangers caused by no block reward to blockchain security . however , besides , The market is right EIP-1559 There are three conjectures ：EIP-1559 Can we improve the trend of high transaction costs ？ Whether deflation can be achieved ？ Whether it will greatly reduce the income of miners ？
To test these expectations and conjectures ,PAData In depth analysis EIP-1559 On line data , The study found that ：
1）EIP-1559 go online 12 Days of cumulative destruction 54493 ETH, The average share of total daily destruction in nominal mining revenue is about 22.84%, Namely support EIP-1559 The miner's income fell by about 23%.
2）EIP-1559 go online 12 Days cumulative payment Tip（Max Priority Fee, Maximum priority fee ）1878 ETH, everyday Tip Total as a percentage of actual mining revenue （ destroyed ） The average specific gravity of is only about 1.02%, Namely support EIP-1559 The miners get little fee income .
3） By 8 month 16 Japan （ Standard time 24:00） Use EIP-1559 The average value of the number of transactions of the rules in the total number of transactions of the day is about 15.72%, The maximum value does not exceed 25%,EIP-1559 The application rate is still low . But in terms of smaller time units ,8 month 19 Japan （ Standard time 02:00）EIP-1559 The application rate of once exceeded 50%, The highest in history .
4）EIP-1559 After the launch ,Gas The price has not fallen , The number of transactions is basically stable , The average utilization of block capacity ranges from 97.26% Drop to 53.02%, It means The current network state will not improve Base Fee, And then increase the transaction fee .
5）EIP-1559 After the launch , Without fully using this standard , The average daily total mining revenue has been from this year 2.17 ten thousand ETH Drop to 1.53 ten thousand ETH, The decline was as high as about 30%, Even with the 7 Monthly and daily average 1.74 ten thousand ETH Compared with the income level of , The decline also reached 12%. It is expected that EIP-1559 Improvement of application rate , The decline in mining revenue will be more obvious . However, there is no evidence that miners have turned to the market outside the agreement , Such as MEV.
6）EIP-1559 After the launch , The average production of new tokens per block is about 2.08 ETH（ Including uncle reward ）, However, the average amount of destruction per blockchain is about 0.74 ETH, The average proportion of the number of blocks realizing deflation per day in the total number of blocks on that day is about 2.47%, Equivalent to a daily average of only about 156 A blockchain has realized deflation , Overall, deflation has not been achieved , And it is still far from deflation .
EIP-1559 More than... Have been destroyed cumulatively 5 ten thousand ETH, However, the current transaction utilization rate is still insufficient 25%
according to Dune Analytics Tracking and monitoring of , By 8 month 16 Japan ,EIP-1559 Accumulated destroyed 54493.46 ETH, Average daily destruction 4541.12 ETH, Maximum single day destruction 5383.87 ETH. The total amount destroyed per day accounts for... Of the total nominal mining revenue （ Including the full handling fee paid by the user and all block rewards ） The average specific gravity of is about 22.84%, The maximum daily specific gravity is about 26.06%. It means In incomplete application EIP-1559 Under the circumstances , At present, the average daily mining income of miners has decreased by about 23%.
EIP-1559 Another aspect of the reform is that users can pay according to the actual transaction needs Tip（Max Priority Fee, Maximum priority fee ）, According to the statistics , By 8 month 16 Japan , User paid Tip The total of about 1877.73 ETH, Average daily payment Tip The total of about 156.48 ETH, The daily average of each block contains Tip The total of about 0.024 ETH.
In terms of proportion , everyday Tip The total amount accounts for the actual total mining revenue （ To destroy ） The average specific gravity of is about 1.02%, The maximum daily specific gravity is about 1.68%, That is to say The proportion of actual transaction fees is only less than 2%. according to PAData Statistics of data on bitcoin and Ethereum chain last year , The average proportion of bitcoin fee income in the total mining income is about 6.69%, Ethereum is about 16.06%. by comparison , In incomplete application EIP-1559 Under the circumstances , The etheric fang EIP-1559 At present, the proportion of handling fee income is still at a relatively low level . however , At present, the network status of Ethereum has remained basically stable , This is to achieve EIP-1559 One of the original intention of —— It is possible to deal with the hidden dangers of blockchain security caused by no block reward in the long run .
at present ,EIP-1559 Not yet applied to every transaction in the chain , According to the statistics , By 8 month 16 Japan , use EIP-1559 The average proportion of the number of transactions in the total number of transactions on that day is about 15.72%, The maximum daily specific gravity is about 24.71%. Although the current overall application rate is not enough 1/4, But two trends deserve attention .
First , Under observation 12 In the day ,EIP-1559 The application rate of shows an obvious upward trend ,16 The daily application rate increased by about... Compared with the first day of launch 19 percentage , It is expected that this application rate will increase rapidly in the future . secondly , according to Dune Analytics The latest data , In terms of smaller time units ,8 month 19 Japan （ Standard time 02:00）EIP-1559 The application rate of once exceeded 50%, The highest in history .
EIP-1559 Three expectations implemented
stay EIP-1559 After the proposal is put forward , The market has three main conjectures about it ：EIP-1559 Can we improve the trend of high transaction costs ？ Whether deflation can be achieved ？ Whether it will greatly reduce the income of miners ？ stay EIP-1559 After the official launch , The data performance on the chain has answered these questions .
Gas Prices are no longer high ？
Recent of Ethereum Gas The average price has not decreased , Instead, it rose slightly . According to the statistics , This year, , stay EIP-1559 Before going online , The monthly average of Ethereum Gas Price is about 98.6 Gwei, But this is mainly affected by the former 5 Against the backdrop of a bull market for months Gas The impact of high prices ,6 After month ,Gas The average price fell below 50 Gwei, The lowest average price reaches 26.9 Gwei. But in EIP-1559 After the launch ,Gas The average price is 59.72 Gwei, a 7 The average monthly price has risen by about 85%, a 6 The average monthly price has gone up 122.01%.
actually ,EIP-1559 The original intention of the design does not include reducing Gas Price , But to make Gas Prices become predictable , So as to improve transaction efficiency .Gas The predictability of price mainly refers to the factors closely related to the utilization rate of block capacity Base Fee Predictable . According to the rules , When the utilization of block capacity exceeds 50% when ,Base Fee Will add up to 12.5%; When usage is 50% when ,Base Fee unchanged ; When the utilization rate is insufficient 50% when ,Base Fee Will reduce... At most 12.5%.
According to the statistics , This year, , stay EIP-1559 Before going online , The average actual utilization rate of each block capacity of Ethereum is about 97.26%, After the launch , By 8 month 16 Japan , The average actual utilization rate of each block capacity of Ethereum is about 53.02%. among , Except on the day of Launch , The utilization rate of block capacity is about 69.08% outside , The capacity utilization rate of blockchain in the rest of the time is basically 51.5%±0.1% Small fluctuations in the range , The network state remains relatively stable , This makes the recent EIP-1159 The handling fee is also relatively stable .
This can also be seen from the recent change trend of Ethereum's monthly average number of transactions on the chain , According to the statistics , This year, , stay EIP-1559 Before going online , The average number of monthly transactions of Ethereum is about 123.24 Ten thousand times , In the last two months （6 month 1 solstice 8 month 4 Japan ） The average number of transactions per month is about 117.31 Ten thousand times . And in the EIP-1559 After the launch , The etheric fang 8 The average number of transactions per month is about 115.30 Ten thousand times , Basically the same as before . It also means that , Behind the basically stable utilization rate of block capacity is the relatively stable transaction demand on the user chain , Although recently NFT The deal is hot , There may be a lot of demand in a short time , But on the whole , This popularity is not enough to change the state of the network .
The income of miners has decreased ？
EIP-1559 Will the user pay Base Fee All destroyed , This has actually affected the miners' mining income . Not fully applied at present EIP-1559 Under the circumstances , According to the statistics , This year, , stay EIP-1559 Before going online , The average daily mining income of Ethereum is about 2.17 ten thousand ETH, After the launch , The average daily mining income decreased to 1.53 ten thousand ETH, The decrease is about 30%. Even with the last two months （6 month 1 solstice 8 month 4 Japan ） Compared with the average daily mining income ,EIP-1559 It still reduced the average daily mining income by more than 7%. It is expected that EIP-1559 Improvement of application rate , The decline in mining revenue will be more obvious .
however , For now , The decline in mining revenue has not forced miners to turn to markets outside the agreement , Like trying to get more MEV. according to MEV-Explore Monitoring of ,EIP-1559 After the launch , Produced in a single day MEV The total amount has not increased significantly . actually , Since this year, 7 Since the month ,MEV The maximum daily total has never exceeded 450 ETH, Compared with the level of thousands in a single day at the beginning of this year . and , from MEV From the source of , At present The miner got it through a fee MEV Only of the total 11.7%. according to PAData Long term observation , The proportion of miners' acquisition remains relatively stable , Always in 12% following . Whether it will prompt miners to turn to the market outside the agreement in the future needs to be verified by practice for a longer time .
Ethereum will achieve deflation ？
because EIP-1559 Will destroy some of the circulating ETH, This may make ETH Towards deflation . However, according to the current situation of online implementation , On the whole , Deflation has not yet arrived .
According to the statistics , stay EIP-1559 After the launch , By 8 month 16 Japan , Ethereum generates new tokens per day 2.08 ETH（ Including uncle reward ）, However, the total amount of destruction per piece per day is only about 0.74 ETH. That is to say The average daily destruction of each block is only... Of the newly produced tokens 36%, The amount destroyed is far less than the new output , On the whole , The whole network is still in the state of additional issuance every day .
Although it will take some time before deflation as a whole , But there are already Individual blocks have achieved local deflation . according to Dune Analytics The statistics of , stay EIP-1559 After the launch , By 8 month 16 Japan , The etheric fang The average ratio of the number of deflationary blocks per day to the total block output is about 2.47%, The highest single day deflation block accounts for about 3.38%, That is, it is equivalent to an average of 160 Two blocks have achieved deflation , The highest single day deflation block 215 individual .
at present EIP-1559 The online time is still short , The application rate is also low , As the application rate increases , The impact of this proposal on Ethereum network will be more significant . But the impact may be dynamic , Other ecology related to Ethereum may make changes at any time . The impact of this upgrade may be long-term , Any participant should keep an eye on .
Data description ：
 All data corresponding to the deadline of this paper are... Of Greenwich mean time 24:00（UTC 00:00）, Special time nodes will be described separately .
author[PANews],Please bring the original link to reprint, thank you.
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